Local Market Monitor, a National REIA preferred vendor, recently released their monthly National Economic Outlook where they share their thoughts on developments taking place in the U.S. economy.
National Economic Outlook
By Ingo WInzerFebruary, 2024
Although inflation is easing and the stock market keeps rising, the outlook for the economy as a whole has not improved. The creation of new jobs – after subtracting covid re-hires in healthcare and government – is languishing at no better than a 1 percent annual rate. Home builders stopped hiring and are laying staff off. Manufacturers are not hiring. Companies are shedding temporary workers at a high rate. And the hiring of computer systems engineers has fallen sharply.
The US economy depends heavily on consumer spending, but the weakness in new job creation indicates that demand for a lot of products has slowed. This isn’t a surprise, consumer incomes were artificially boosted during the covid epidemic by government payments – which have come to an end. The surge of inflation for basics like food and gas, even if it’s now moderating, hurt consumer’s attitudes as much as their bank accounts. And the surge in prices of home and new cars put them beyond the reach of most people.
The worry for 2024 is that consumers will stop spending. Consumer debt per person has already reached a high plateau, you can only charge so much before you or your bank decides to stop. The various crises in the world have a depressing effect. And the boom in home prices could easily end in a bust.
In January, jobs increased 1.9 percent over last year, including increases of 2.8 percent in construction, 0.3 percent in manufacture, 1 percent in retail, 1.1 percent in finance, 1 percent in business services, 4.3 percent in healthcare, 1.9 percent at restaurants, and 2.7 percent in government.
Do you have questions that you would like to have answered in the next NEO presentation? Please submit questions here.
Click here for more information about Local Market Monitor.
