Local Market Monitor (a National REIA preferred vendor) recently released their National Economic Outlook for October, 2017 where they share their thoughts on developments taking place in the U.S. economy.
National Economic Outlook – November 2017
November 14, 2017
By: Ingo WinzerLocal data for October aren’t available yet, but the overall effect of the hurricanes in Texas and Florida on jobs will probably be transient. Overall, jobs in the US in October were up 1.4 percent from last year, up from 1.2 percent in September and in line with previous months.
This doesn’t mean the affected local markets will snap back. In both the Houston and Miami areas about 15,000 jobs were lost. (In Puerto Rico, the devastation is so great that no data at all are available.) Ironically, although the Houston economy may recover faster as refineries get back on-line, Miami will probably have a more complete recovery. Even before the hurricanes, growth in energy-dependent Houston had been slow – almost zero in 2016 – while growth in South Florida has been high for years, buoyed by foreign capital.
The hurricanes came on top of a national economy that the Fed says is going great guns but in terms of new jobs has been steadily slowing. Last year job growth was 1.7 percent, the year before that 2.1 percent. This year 1.5 percent is the new normal.
In October jobs were up 1.4 percent from last year, including (on a very positive note) 1.2 percent in manufacturing, 2.5 percent in business services, 1.9 percent in healthcare, 1.9 percent at restaurants, and 1.8 percent in finance. Retail jobs were down a half percent and government jobs were basically flat. Unemployment in October was 4.1 percent.
About the Author: Ingo Winzer is President of Local Market Monitor, and has analyzed real estate markets for more than 20 years. His views on real estate markets are often quoted in the national press and in 2005, he warned that many housing markets were dangerously over-priced. Previously, Ingo was a founder and Executive Vice President of First Research, an industry research company that was acquired by Dun and Bradstreet in March 2007. He is a graduate of MIT and holds an MBA in Finance from Boston University. He resides in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
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