Local Market Monitor (a National REIA preferred vendor) recently released their National Economic Outlook for September, 2017 where they share their thoughts on developments taking place in the U.S. economy.
National Economic Outlook – September 2017
September 13, 2017
By: Ingo WinzerWhy do the monthly economic statistics matter to long-term investments in real estate? It’s partly a matter of timing – you’d prefer not to make an investment just as the economy is tanking. But aside from spotting the infrequent recession, investors can dissect current performance to take advantage of the strategic changes that will affect their long-term decisions.
One of the ongoing changes in the current economy is the rapid drive for efficiency fostered by computer technology, which has eliminated many jobs altogether and allowed others to be done overseas – probably the biggest dislocation since technology began eliminating farm jobs a hundred years ago, when most people lived on farms. The TYPES of jobs now being eliminated (or created) – and where they’re located – has an enormous effect on the types of housing people need. The bifurcation of incomes – more high, more low, not as many in the middle – is also an opportunity for investors who can identify where and how real estate demand is restructuring. It’s easy enough to SAY these changes are taking place, but translating them into actual investment decisions can only be done effectively by finding the fine print in the short-term statistics the government so generously supplies.
Jobs in August were up 1.5 percent from last year, this seems to be the new normal in 2017. Jobs were up 1 percent in manufacturing, 2 percent in healthcare, 2.5 percent at restaurants, 3 percent in business services, and were flat in retail and in government.
For those who like very early warning, jobs in finance were up 1.8 percent – lower than the 2.3 percent rate earlier this year. Growth in finance jobs peaked 18 months before each of the last two recessions.
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