Local Market Monitor, a National REIA preferred vendor, recently released their National Economic Outlook for October, 2019 where they share their thoughts on developments taking place in the U.S. economy.
National Economic Outlook – October 2019
By Ingo Winzer
The number of jobs in September was up 1.4 percent from last year, a repeat of August and a confirmation that the August data weren’t an outlier. It’s now most likely that we’ll see a further weakening in the months ahead, and the big question is whether the economy can keep gliding along at this reduced pace.
The last two recessions began when job growth edged down towards 1 percent and then swiftly dropped to zero and below. If we see a break point like this again, job growth could be negative in the next year.
Jobs in September were up 2.6 percent in healthcare, 2.1 percent in business services, 2 percent at restaurants, 1.2 percent in finance, and 0.8 percent in government. Retail jobs were down again. Although jobs were up in manufacturing and construction, both sectors continue on a downward trend – a negative indicator for the economy. And within business services, temp jobs – another bell-weather category – were up just 0.6 percent.
There’s more bad news than good news here, because it’s difficult to see how these negative trends will be reversed.
About the Author: Ingo Winzer is President of Local Market Monitor, and has analyzed real estate markets for more than 20 years. His views on real estate markets are often quoted in the national press and in 2005, he warned that many housing markets were dangerously over-priced. Previously, Ingo was a founder and Executive Vice President of First Research, an industry research company that was acquired by Dun and Bradstreet in March 2007. He is a graduate of MIT and holds an MBA in Finance from Boston University. He resides in Cambridge, Massachusetts.