Local Market Monitor, a National REIA preferred vendor, recently released their National Economic Outlook for July, 2019 where they share their thoughts on developments taking place in the U.S. economy.
National Economic Outlook – July 2019
July 23, 2019
By Ingo Winzer
Month-to-month changes in economic statistics usually tell us nothing about where the economy is headed, there’s too much variability. But a six month comparison might be enlightening at a time when the economy seems to be slowing.
In January, the total number of jobs in the economy was up 2.0 percent from the previous year – this happened to be the high-spot of growth in the last couple of years. In June, that growth was 1.5 percent.
What accounts for the drop, especially since jobs in healthcare – one of the biggest sectors of the economy – actually did better in June? Most important, business services did worse: the change from 2.5 percent in January to 2.2 in June is meaningful because the category includes so many jobs. There was also a slowdown of growth in restaurants, finance, retail, manufacturing and – somewhat ominously – construction.
Whether commercial or residential, construction projects take time and money, and developers won’t start a new one if they think future demand will be weak – which usually means they’re having trouble selling their existing product.
About the Author: Ingo Winzer is President of Local Market Monitor, and has analyzed real estate markets for more than 20 years. His views on real estate markets are often quoted in the national press and in 2005, he warned that many housing markets were dangerously over-priced. Previously, Ingo was a founder and Executive Vice President of First Research, an industry research company that was acquired by Dun and Bradstreet in March 2007. He is a graduate of MIT and holds an MBA in Finance from Boston University. He resides in Cambridge, Massachusetts.